There's Optimism eCommerce Growth Has Bottomed in Q2 - Bernstein

By Senad Karaahmetovic A Bernstein analyst believes there are pieces of evidence that eCommerce growth has bottomed out in the second quarter of this year.

The analyst notes “improving” Y/Y growth rates in recent months, mostly fueled by Amazon’s Prime Day. Although recessions remain present, the recent eCommerce strength is encouraging.

“The US eCommerce penetration curve isn’t under as much pressure as headlines suggest. We estimate that inflation-adjusted eCom penetration was 24.3% of retail (ex-auto, gas & food) in 2Q22, ~150bps better than 2Q21 (nominal penetration and Y/Y growth were 21.0% and 7.3% respectively). That’s in line with the pace of increasing digital penetration pre-COVID,” the analyst said in a client note.

The analyst also expects to see a more competitive online market going forward, as well as the divergence between the U.S. and Europe.

“Penetration rates continue to fall below their respective trendlines in the UK and EU, with eCommerce spend decreasing Y/Y in both regions,” he added.

Bernstein has Overweight ratings on Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ) and Etsy (NASDAQ: ETSY ), while eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY ) and Wayfair (NYSE: W ) are rated Market Perform and Underperform, respectively.

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